Some opposition to Kaye et al paper
MMR
cannot be exonerated without explaining increased incidence of autism
I have several issues with their study:
(1) The cohort of children chosen was born during 1988-93. MMR was
introduced in the United Kingdom in 1988 and an uptake of 90-95%
is unlikely to have been achieved from the first year.
(2) Kaye et al effectively excluded children born before 1988 who may
have been vaccinated in or after 1988.
(3) The 114 boys selected were observed until the age of 71 months.
Many of them could have succumbed after the second MMR vaccination
(booster), which is given between the ages of 4 and 5 years.
The study did not mention how many children received two MMR vaccinations.
(4) MMR vaccine was previously given alone at 15 months or later. Then
the age was lowered to 12-14 months and other vaccines were
administered concomitantly, increasing the immune antigenic insult at
a younger more susceptible age and effectively increasing the
incidence of autism.
(5) The restriction of the cases in the main analysis to 114 boys is of
concern. A breakdown of the 290 children in the 1990-9 birth
cohorts by sex and year of birth would have been informative. A
larger proportion of girls among the 176 cases excluded might have
been relevant to the completeness of the autism figures.
(6) The fact that neither DSM-IV nor IC-10 was systematically used in the
United Kingdom creates further doubts about the significance of the
findings.
Professor Brent Taylor in the Lancet (1999;353:2026-9) and now Kaye et
al have clearly documented the epidemic of autism in the United
Kingdom. Before 1988 the incidence of autism was 1 in 10 000;
after 1988
Kaye et al cannot exonerate MMR without offering a reasonable explanation for
the increase.
Until safety studies on MMR are independent of drug companies and are large scale and comprehensive, and until researchers review with parents the documented adverse reactions of bowel disease and autism, the triple jab remains suspect.
We submit that the argument given by Kaye et al is too simplistic to reassure us that there is no link between MMR and autism. The current arguments in favour of the link, however, remain unconvincing.