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Headline Draws Questionable Conclusion
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Rise In Autism Rates In California
Dateline: 03/09/01
The March 7, 2001 issue of the
Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) reports that an
analysis of the statistical data regarding the rise in Autism rates in
California and its relationship to the Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR)
vaccine shows no correlation between the two. The report is based on
data analyzed by the California Department of Health Services. Dr.
Loring Dales, author of the article stated, "We can say, for certain,
that theory is incorrect."
While this report is getting heavy
press coverage, the headlines do not point out that,"'tiny portion'
of autism cases" may be caused by the MMR, as is indicated in the report
from California. The press also does not point out that the people doing
the study are also the ones responsible for MMR vaccination programs in
California. Does this represent a conflict of interest and more
importantly, are their findings accurate?
At this point, no one knows. One of the characteristics of good
scientific research is that studies can be replicated. As yet, no one
has reported the replication of the statistical analysis of the data and
confirmed that it indeed draws an accurate conclusion. Until that time,
the possibility remains that the conclusions drawn are inaccurate. Only
time will tell.
Of much more concern, however, is the statement that, "There is no
correlation to show that (MMR vaccination) is a major factor, or even a
factor at all, in autism." This statement is misleading and tends to
minimize the concerns of parents who are desperately seeking answers as
to the cause of their child's Autism, not to mention research being done
around the world. No analysis of a small sample of statistical data from
one geographic location can make an assumption such as this and have it
be shown to be statistically valid. The statement is simply too broad
and all encompassing.
Had the report stated, that there was no significant evidence of a
statistical correlation between the MMR vaccine and the rise in Autism
rates in California, this might have been a valid conclusion. To extend
those findings further and state that there is no correlation to Autism
in general, is overstepping the bounds of good science. It also shows an
internal conflict between the conclusion and the statement that "a tiny
portion of Autism cases may be related to the MMR."
The author of this report can not have it both ways. Either there is
a correlation or there is not. It is not possible to say there is no
correlation but... If there is even a slim possibility that there are
Autism cases caused by the MMR vaccine, then there is a correlation.
This internal conflict raises doubts as to the validity of the entire
study.
What is needed is an independent review of the evidence and the
statistical measurements that were used to draw these conclusions. It
may very well be that the findings reported by JAMA are accurate. If
they are, this would be a great aid to researchers attempting to isolate
causes for Autism. It may be that it can not be replicated and this too
would be an aid to those same researchers. The important thing, at this
point in time, is that findings need to be verified, one way or the
other. Until that is done, the questions remain unanswered.
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