ASHINGTON,
Oct. 18 Dr. Marjorie Barnett, a pediatrician in Silver Spring, Md., is
accustomed to talking to parents about immunization. These days, amid growing
fear of bioterrorism, those conversations center not on hepatitis or polio,
but on a disease that was wiped out decades ago: smallpox.
"I'm getting 5 or 10 calls a day from parents who want the
vaccine," said Dr. Barnett, who believes that smallpox vaccinations,
suspended in this country in 1972, should resume. "I have to tell them
it's just not available. What I am telling them now is, `Call your Congress
people, call the White House, call everybody you know and tell them to look
into this.' "
One day after the federal government announced that it was laying plans to
stockpile enough smallpox vaccine, 300 million doses, to protect every
American if necessary, questions are quickly emerging about how that
stockpile would be used.
The vaccine carries risks. A recent analysis of six million people who
received their first smallpox vaccinations in 1968 found that six had died as
a result, mostly of encephalitis, an inflammation of the brain. Other adverse
effects can be far more common. Even so, some patients argue that they should
be allowed to decide for themselves.
But public-health experts maintain that a mass vaccination program is
unwise. Smallpox vaccine, they say, should be used only in the event of a
smallpox outbreak.
"The recommendation right now is no," said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci,
director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, adding
that the complications of smallpox vaccine were greater than for those
vaccinations that are still given in childhood. "And the reason those
complications were accepted was because of the extraordinarily devastating
impact that smallpox could have on society."
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in Atlanta, has a reserve
of roughly 15 million doses of smallpox vaccine. That vaccine, which is not
available to the public, was manufactured using a method that dates from the
1700's. The method involves infecting calves with a related virus, vaccinia;
the resulting pus is used in the making of the vaccine.
That process is considered barely acceptable for human vaccine today. So
the government has contracted with a biotechnology company, Acambis,
to make a similar vaccine using modern techniques that involve growing
vaccinia in cells, and to deliver 54 million doses by next summer. Early next
year, Dr. Fauci's institute will begin clinical trials of that vaccine; in
the current climate, he predicted, there will be no shortage of volunteers.
At the same time, Tommy G. Thompson, secretary of health and human
services, says he is negotiating with four drug makers to produce enough
doses to cover every American.
The smallpox virus exists in laboratories that are overseen by the World
Health Organization, although bioterrorism experts believe that clandestine
stocks may exist. In any event, unlike anthrax, which is not transmitted from
person to person, smallpox is highly contagious.
The smallpox vaccine can be used not only to prevent infection but also to
treat people within a few days of exposure to the virus, and thus contain an
epidemic.
An outbreak of smallpox in New York City in 1947 provides insight into how
such a vaccination program would work, said Leonard A. Cole, who teaches
science and public policy at Rutgers University and is the author of a book
on biological warfare.
The outbreak, Mr. Cole said, involved a businessman who had been traveling
in Mexico and arrived in New York on March 10 of that year. He died in a city
hospital after infecting several others, but city health officials did not
detect the outbreak until April 4.
The authorities then made a "crash decision to vaccinate everybody
that had not been vaccinated since childhood," Mr. Cole said, but, with
only 500,000 doses on hand, they soon ran out of vaccine. They turned to the
military for help, and in three weeks 6.3 million New Yorkers had been
immunized against smallpox. In the end, he said, 12 people were infected with
the virus, and two died, including the first patient.
Mr. Cole described this method of responding as "a model that we know
works." But today's population is far more vulnerable to smallpox: many
Americans have never been vaccinated, and even those who have been now lack
protection because the vaccine is thought to wear off after 15 or 20 years.
So some people say they would rather risk vaccination than the possibility
of a slowly detected outbreak. Others are not so sure. "I'd want to know
more about the side effects and the dangers to my daughter," said Elaine
Herscher of San Francisco, the mother of a 5-year-old. "The real threat
to her health from the vaccine could be far worse."
Even if the government does amass 300 million doses, it is unlikely to
offer them without "substantial discussion," said Dr. Thomas V.
Inglesby of the Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies at Johns Hopkins
University.
Among the questions that would need to be answered: Who should be
vaccinated first? Emergency workers? Health professionals? Children? The
elderly?
In the meantime, the government is also paying for research into safer
smallpox treatments. Dr. Mark Buller, a virologist at St. Louis University,
is part of that effort. Because he studies viruses in the pox family, he is
one of the few Americans who have recently been immunized against smallpox.
"I would not even consider having my family vaccinated," Dr.
Buller said. "I feel I'm more likely to be hit riding my bike to work
than to be hit by a smallpox episode in my own life."