WASHINGTON · It may not
be necessary to vaccinate the entire population against smallpox in case
there is ever a biological attack, researchers said Thursday.
If people vaccinated before 1972, when the United States stopped the
practice, have some remaining protection against the disease, they would
act as a barrier to help slow the spread of any epidemic, the team at
Emory University found.
"If people vaccinated before 1972 have about 50 percent residual
immunity, then a targeted vaccination strategy works about as well as
mass vaccination," said Dr. Elizabeth Halloran, an expert in making
computer models of infectious disease outbreaks. "If there is no
residual protection, then mass vaccination works better."
Smallpox was eradicated as a disease in 1978, and the United States
stopped vaccinating in 1972. But with recent fears of a bioterror
attack, U.S. officials have been considering whether to vaccinate at
least some of the population.
Vaccination advisers to the U.S. government have recommended immunizing
about 500,000 "first responders" and emergency workers so they could
help without endangerment. President Bush has not decided what to do.
No one is sure how many of those vaccinated before 1972 are still
immune.
Most experts say they think people may be protected from the most deadly
effects of the virus, which, when it was rampant, killed about 30
percent of victims. Those who were vaccinated may be less likely to
spread it.
Halloran and colleagues ran a series of computer models. They ran the
models twice -- once assuming everyone vaccinated before 1972 had no
protection, and then one assuming they had about 50 percent of full
protection left.
Writing in the journal Science, they said it could be more effective to
vaccinate just people likely to have had close contact with victims.
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