The world is a republic of mediocrities.... - Carlyle

Nothing is more durable than a hog's snout

Driven by the spread of [AIDS] … the coming Eurasian pandemic threatens to derail the economic prospects of billions and alter the global military balance.

—Nicholas Eberstadt

        A generation ago, no one had heard of HIV/AIDS. In this short time span, an estimated 65 million people have acquired it and 25 million have died from it. Ominously, the future of this global pandemic remains uncertain, as there is no cure and not even a reliable method to accurately forecast its long-term trajectory. The best guesstimates of experts paint a chilling picture, which is the focus of this article, primarily derived from an essay written by Nicholas Eberstadt at the American Enterprise Institute, and appearing in the Nov-Dec 2002 Foreign Affairs magazine.

          For the most part, AIDS has been considered a humanitarian tragedy primarily afflicting sub-Saharan Africa, but not a political or economic disaster affecting the whole world. That is changing as the locus of AIDS moves from Africa to Eurasia and major geopolitical factors come into play. Despite the fact AIDS in Black Africa is a medical catastrophe of historic proportions, it’s had little impact on the rest of the world. Why? Because sub-Saharan Africa occupies a very marginal position in global economics and politics. The total size of Black Africa’s economy is less than Switzerland’s, and most African nations lack capability to extend military influence beyond their own borders.

          However, geopolitically speaking, Eurasia (Asian continent plus Russia) is another story. It’s home to nearly two-thirds of the world’s population; its 2000 GNP was $15 trillion, greater than either the US or Europe; 4 of the world’s 5 million-man armies, and 4 of 7 declared nuclear states are in Eurasia. Thus, as Eberstadt says, “unexpected shocks there—such as the unfolding HIV/AIDS epidemic—will have major worldwide repercussions.”

          And HIV is already firmly established in Eurasia with conventional estimates of 7 million carriers in 2001 (“… it took less than a decade for sub-Saharan Africa’s HIV population to leap from 7 million to 25 million”). However, dropping a statistical bombshell, the US intelligence community believes there are already nearly double the conventional estimates, at 12 million HIV carriers. The Eurasia nations that will have the greatest effect on global geopolitics are China, India and Russia, so this discussion revolves around them.

          First, we must understand why HIV/AIDS will have such a major impact on Eurasian (and any) economies. As Eberstadt says, “AIDS does not kill randomly but instead tends to strike people in their prime reproductive ages—years that coincide in most populations with the highest rates of labor productivity.” Furthermore, AIDS doesn’t kill immediately, but victims become increasingly debilitated over years, requiring increasing and costly family or medical personnel attention. This subverts and diverts governments’ and peoples’ overall energy and resources from “moneymaking” productivity towards money-draining and time-consuming humanitarian activity. All this has a huge negative economic impact on “population growth, labor supply and savings rates.”

          For reasons of economic survival, governments and corporations must always carefully weigh investments—in capital and human assets. Subjecting their decisions to cold hard calculus, they find that return on investment for spending (investing) money to educate people and provide costly technical training is severely curtailed and often not cost effective when productivity and life itself is cut short by HIV/AIDS. Thus, the underlying economic health of nations is directly proportional to exorbitant physical health liabilities, such as HIV/AIDS.

          This has another huge secondary effect: foreign governments and international corporations are very reluctant to provide direct investment, technology and personnel transfers to nations where economic and health risks are acute. This will essentially slow or cut off the globalization process in many developing nations … those that most need it. Many third-world nations criticize globalization because they are not reaping the full benefits of it, not because they reject it outright. Most passionately want the economic benefits globalization offers provided they can wring out the unwanted cultural baggage attached by the multi-national corporations as part of the package.

          As we said at the outset, projecting the long-term trajectory of the HIV/AIDS pandemic is not an exact science. But the best estimates of experts in the field predict a bleak future for China, Russia and India if no cure is found and if current trends continue. And make no mistake; the spread of HIV/AIDS everywhere is almost entirely attributable to behavior—homosexuality, sharing of needles by intravenous drug users, and promiscuity in the heterosexual population. Self-righteous claims by hypocritical nations and peoples to the contrary, sanctimonious facades of ethical principles are falling by the wayside with each new victim.

          Russian roulette has taken on new meaning as the government is not only in denial of its exploding HIV/AIDS problem, but is blocking outside organizations from financing health-related activities. Tuberculosis, directly associated with AIDS, is now epidemic throughout Russia. Those who test positive for HIV and are suspected of drug use are prosecuted, creating a powerful incentive for victims to hide the problem instead of seeking help.

          India’s government and public are averse to discussing any behavior associated with HIV/AIDS transmission. Drug use is a major problem next to the border with heroin-producing Burma, but widespread prostitution is a major culprit and many monogamous women are being infected by unfaithful husbands having extramarital affairs. Virtually no information is available to women about HIV risks.

          In China, almost all HIV cases are undocumented and untreated. “Officially,” China says it has 1 million HIV carriers. However, in June a UN official told The New York Times China may have as many as 6 million HIV carriers, which would be the single largest HIV population of any nation in the world. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the number of HIV carriers in China could double in 30 months. China’s government officially prohibits open discussion of HIV/AIDS.

          Based on the HIV/AIDS models in use, here are some staggering projections for China, India and Russia. New HIV cases between 2000-2025 in China: 32-100 million; India: 30-140 million; Russia: 4-19 million. AIDS deaths 2000-2025 in China: 19-58 million; India: 21-85 million; Russia: 3-12 million. In all three nations, the working age population is projected to decline by 2025 due to HIV/AIDS, and in Russia, life expectancy will be a decade less than today.

          In China, projected national economic output under a “no HIV/AIDS” scenario would increase 80% from 2000 to 2025, but depending on the severity of the emerging epidemic, it will be at least one-third less, quite possibly drastically worse. In India, projected national economic output under a “no HIV/AIDS” scenario would increase 170% from 2000 to 2025, but depending on the severity of the emerging epidemic, it will be one-third to three-fourths less. In Russia, projected national economic output under a “no HIV/AIDS” scenario would increase 33% from 2000 to 2025, but it will be stagnant at best, and in the event of only an intermediate epidemic, Russia’s economic output would be a shocking 40% lower in 2025 than today. A severe HIV/AIDS epidemic in Russia would be beyond devastating economically.

          Lest you think the foregoing is unduly pessimistic, consider these words in early 2001 from Lawrence Altman, M.D., the New York Times medical correspondent: “HIV’s toll has vastly exceeded the most pessimistic report issued earlier in the epidemic, and the misjudgment largely reflects gaps in knowledge about HIV and AIDS.” A combination of ignorance and denial concerning HIV/AIDS will be devastating for both humans and national economies in today’s world. What effect this rapidly emerging pandemic will have on economic and military moves by Eurasian nations and their attitudes towards the rest of the world are unknown, but we can be certain that great geopolitical turbulence lies ahead.

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