A reanalysis of POLIO VACCINE SWITCH HAS LOWERED RATE OF VACCINE-ASSOCIATED PARALYTIC DISEASE by Sandy Mintz

 

"The investigators noted a somewhat higher rate of death after IPV than after OPV, 0.83 versus 0.17 per 100,000 doses, most of which were due to sudden infant death syndrome. Nonfatal serious events occurred in 1.6 per 100,000 doses of IPV and 0.9 per 100,000 doses of OPV in 1998."

Taken from Medscape article: POLIO VACCINE SWITCH HAS LOWERED RATE OF VACCINE-ASSOCIATED PARALYTIC DISEASE

http://pediatrics.medscape.com/reuters/prof/2001/05/05.21/20010518publ003.html

 

Let's analyze this statement.  First, it is not a somewhat higher rate, the rate is almost 5 times higher.

 

Second, children get 4 doses, so that amounts to a little less than one death per 25,000 CHILDREN and 1.6 serious reactions per 25,000 CHILDREN. 

 

Estimates of underreporting are between 1-10%,.  Assuming the numbers reported here are based on passive reporting, that would mean that between 8.3/25,000 (or 1 out 3000) and 83/25,000 (or 1 out of 300) CHILDREN MAY HAVE DIED after IPV.  It would mean that between 16 out of 25,000 (or 1 out of 1562) and 160 out of 25, 000 (or 1 out of 156) CHILDREN MAY HAVE HAD A SERIOUS REACTION after IPV.  (One caveat: to whatever extent children died or had a serious reaction before the fourth dose, the numbers of children involved have to be adjusted.  I would think it would be incumbent on the reporter, not the reader, however, to figure out how many children actually got those 100,000 doses.)

 

Note they acknowledged a relationship between the vaccine and sudden infant death.