http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/324/7350/1354/e
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Epidemiology Diabetes
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Roger Dobson Abergavenny
The number of patients diagnosed with diabetes in England and Wales could increase by more than 40% by 2023, a new report says.
The report says that the increasing numbers means that those people at highest risk, such as overweight people, could be targeted for prevention programmes (Health Statistics Quarterly 2002;14:5-13).
It says: "Body mass index has been identified as a dominant risk factor for diabetes, and the risk of diabetes was reduced among men who took regular exercise. In Finland, type 2 diabetes was prevented by lifestyle changes, including weight loss, in overweight middle-aged patients."
The report, which looks at the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes mellitus in general practice records, says that the incidence increased in most age groups between 1994 and 1998. In people aged 35-74, prevalence of diagnosed diabetes was highest in the most deprived areas.
The study, which used data from the general practice research database, says that from 1994 to 1998 the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes increased from 1.89 to 2.23 in 100 male patients and from 1.37 to 1.64 in 100 female patients .
The report says that about half of all people with diabetes in this period were treated with oral drugs, without insulin, to control their blood sugar concentrations. Around a quarter were treated with insulin and the remainder controlled their diabetes through diet alone.
"The prevalence of diagnosed diabetes increased with age, up to age 84, and, in each of the age groups between 25 and 84, was higher in males than females," says the report.
It adds: "Due solely to the ageing population, the number of people with diagnosed diabetes is projected to rise by 31%, from 1.15 million in 1998 to 1.51 million in 2023. This increase will be even greater if prevalence in each age group continues to rise. Even with a conservative increase in prevalence of 10%, this is projected to rise by 44% to 1.66 million by 2023."
The report says that the standardised mortality ratio of people with diabetes is significantly higher than for people without diabetes, and that diabetes accounts for around 9% of annual hospital inpatient expenditure. The researchers say that the study provides baseline data for the implementation of the national service framework.
The report, "Prevalence of diagnosed diabetes mellitus in general practice in England and Wales, 1994 to 1998,"
is available from the Office of National Statistics, 1
Drummond Gate, London SW1V 2QQ, or it can be accessed at
www.statistics.gov.uk
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Epidemiology Diabetes
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