Population screening for individuals at high risk of getting coronary heart
disease is an explicit objective in primary care.The national
service framework for coronary heart disease recommendsthat general
practitioners and primary healthcare teams shouldidentify all people
at significant risk of cardiovascular disease,but who have not yet
developed symptoms, and offer them appropriateadvice and treatment
to reduce their risk.1 In contrast to
the current policy of maximising participation, Marteau and Kinmonth
in this issue suggest that helping individuals to become involvedin
making informed choices may increase their motivation to make
changes.2
When the introduction of a national screening programme is being considered,
a proper scientific evaluation should occur.Wilson and Jungner's
criteria are a yardstick against which ascreening programme can be
judged (see box).3 Apart from the
recognition that coronary heart disease is an important health
problem little evidence exists that any of the other criteriaare
adequatelymet.
The "significant risk of cardiovascular disease" to which the national
service framework refers equates to a risk of coronaryheart disease
of more than 30% over 10 years. It is advocatedthat risk assessment
should be performed by using one of severalclinical decisions aids
that are based on a Framingham risk equation.4Although mortality due to coronary heart disease has declined
considerably since the 1970s, and evidence has shown that the
Framingham risk equation overestimates risk in populations oflow
prevalence of coronary heart disease, we do not know the sensitivity
and specificity of this equation in a British population. 56 Further, the collection of the necessary
information about riskfactors is inadequate and user accuracy only
moderate even whenall the information is present. Wide variation
also exists betweenthe clinical decision aids with respect to the
numbers of individualsidentified as being at high risk.
78
The Wilson-Jungner
criteria for appraising the validity of a screening programme
(1) The condition being screened for should be an important health
problem
(2) The natural history of the condition should be well understood
(3) There should be a detectable early stage
(4) Treatment at an early stage should be of more benefit than at a later
stage
(5) A suitable test should be devised for the early stage
(6) The test should be acceptable
(7) Intervals for repeating the test should be determined
(8) Adequate health service provision should be made for the extra
clinical workload resulting from screening
(9) The risks, both physical and psychological, should be less than the
benefits
(10) The costs should be balanced against the benefits
Even if the Framingham equation is assumed to be accurate, an estimated 3.4%
of the population aged between 35 and 69 yearswould be identified as
having a risk of coronary heart diseaseof greater than 30% over
10 years. Moreover, the threshold of15% for consideration of
treatment with aspirin and antihypertensiveswould entail identifying
and treating 25% of the population.9
Only very few patients' records contain all the necessary dataon
risk factors, and this reflects that primary care is strugglingwith
the workload associated with identifying the patients athigh risk.7
More conservative and practicable approaches havebeen suggested,
which entail restricting the measuring of totaland high density
lipoprotein cholesterol to patients who are amongthe 5% of the
population (based only on their age, sex, smoking,and blood
pressure) with a risk of 30% or more over 10 years.10As yet, no consensus has beenreached.
Difficulties in risk assessment aside, once an estimate has been made of a
patient's risk of coronary heart disease, a dialogueneeds to be
started between clinician and patient to enable aninformed decision
about possible interventions. The language usedby the clinicianfor
example, the use of words such as "rare"or "probable"and
the way in which numerical data are presentedcan strongly influence
the decisions that patients make.11 Framingeffectsthe
description of similar degrees of risk in differentwayscan
further complicate informed decision making. For example,presenting
information in terms of relative risk or as absoluterisk can
influence clinicians' decision making, but the effecton patients is
unknown.11 The clinical decision aids that thenational service framework advocates present only absolute risk
and do not include information about the possible risk reductions
that could be expected frominterventions.
The presence of the national service framework has undoubtedly resulted in
concentrating the efforts of primary care practitionerson the
prevention of coronary heart disease. Risk assessment combining
multiple risk factors is preferable to focusing on arbitrary thresholdsof single risk factors. But practical issues remain concerning
the estimation of risk of coronary heart disease and sharing the
decisions on treatment with patients. These difficulties, combined
with the disappointing results of the trials of multiple riskfactor
interventions, question how informed the clinician or thepatient can
be.12 Until scientific evaluation catches up withpolitical expediency, the goal of involving patients in making
genuinely informed choices about coronary heart disease screening
seems a long wayoff.
Peter Brindle, Wellcome training fellow in health
services research.
Marteau TM, Kinmonth A. Screening for cardiovascular risk:
a public health imperative or a matter for individual informed choice?
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Anderson KM, Wilson PW, Odell PM, Kannel WB. An updated
coronary risk profile. A statement for health professionals. Circulation
1991; 83: 356-362[Medline].
Menotti A, Puddu PE, Lanti M. Comparison of the Framingham
risk function-based coronary chart with risk function from an Italian
population study. Eur Heart J 2000; 21: 365-370[Medline].
McManus RJ, Mant J, Meulendijks CFM, Salter RA, Pattison
HM, Roalfe AK, et al. Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of
coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation
tools in general practice: cross sectional study. BMJ 2002; 324:
459-464[Abstract/Full
Text].
Unwin N, Thomson R, O'Byrne AM, Laker M, Armstrong H.
Implications of applying widely accepted cholesterol screening and
management guidelines to a British adult population: cross sectional study
of cardiovascular disease and risk factors. BMJ 1998; 317: 1125-1130[Abstract/Full
Text].
Pickin DM, McCabe CJ, Ramsay LE, Payne N, Haq IU, Yeo WW,
et al. Cost effectiveness of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor (statin) treatment
related to the risk of coronary heart disease and cost of drug treatment.
Heart 1999; 82: 325-332[Abstract/Full
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