Start vaccinating now

By William Tell

What would happen if news came out today of Americans being stricken with smallpox, the result of a bioterrorist attack? It's a question that U.S. bioterrorism experts looked at in June 2001, mere months before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. And the answer was not good.

Led by former senator Sam Nunn, D-Ga., the "Dark Winter" smallpox scenario examined the impact of 3,000 people being infected with smallpox by terrorists secretly attacking three cities. Within six weeks of the attack, up to 3 million Americans would succumb to the extraordinarily painful and disfiguring disease of smallpox. And 1 million would die.

Why would the disease spread so quickly and so devastatingly? Smallpox vaccinations ended in this country 30 years ago. Most Americans, including all of our nation's children, are unprotected. It is also doubtful that after an attack, we could round up and vaccinate 288 million people within five days, after which the vaccine is ineffective.

In addition, during an attack there would be mandated vaccinations, and consequently millions of Americans with suppressed immunity could be forcibly vaccinated.

The answer to this problem is in our hands: Make the vaccine available to Americans who want it now and start to rebuild our "herd immunity."

A voluntary vaccination program initiated now, prior to an attack, would include careful screening of potential recipients, and the more vulnerable could be excluded.

The Bush administration moved quickly to order new supplies of smallpox vaccine after 9/11, and those shipments are coming in now. A Gallup poll released last month found that 55% of Americans would take the vaccine if it were offered today. As soon as we start vaccinating, smallpox loses potency as a weapon of mass destruction.

Yet the Bush administration has moved at a snail's pace in formulating an actual smallpox policy that will protect the greatest number of people.

Current proposals suggest that ordinary Americans will not be able to get the vaccine until 2004, if at all. That is troublesome given that before 2004, the U.S. may go to war with Iraq, a nation suspected of having a smallpox bioweapons program. Facing a forced "regime change" from U.S. led forces, Saddam Hussein might send his agents out to our cities with his most lethal weapons.

As the father of two small children living in the Washington, D.C., area, I do not think my family and I should have to wait until 2004 for smallpox protection. The right of self-defense from bioterror should be available to everyone, not just government-approved personnel. Yes, there are risks in taking this vaccine, and many Americans with compromised immune systems would rightly be excluded. However, those who can get the vaccine now can offer a critical line of defense for those who cannot.

William Tell is a health care industry consultant and co-president of Parents for Smallpox Protection, an advocacy group.