Last Updated: 2002-12-24 14:16:14 -0400 (Reuters Health)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Americans who received the
smallpox vaccine as children could be vaccinated again
to build up immunity in the population, without exposing
new people to the vaccine's risks, US medical experts
said on Monday.
Johns Hopkins University professor Donald Burke and
Brookings Institution senior fellow Joshua Epstein said
those already immunized for smallpox--about 60% of the
US population--were much less likely to suffer the
vaccine's side effects, some of which could be lethal.
Burke and Epstein said by immunizing a select group
of the population, who received the vaccine without
complications but whose resistance to the disease has
waned, the United States could create a safe cushion of
immunity.
"The reason to be revaccinated is not necessarily to
protect yourself, but to protect the entire population,"
Burke told a news briefing, adding that children and
others without exposure to the vaccine would be no more
vulnerable under their model.
"The more we raise the probability that we can stop
an epidemic, the more we increase our chances of
quenching an introduction, the better the chances the
children won't get infected at all in the first place."
President Bush was revaccinated over the weekend and
the US government plans to immunize millions of troops
and emergency workers against the long-dormant disease,
now deemed a biological terrorist threat.
Smallpox has not occurred naturally since 1978 and
the United States stopped vaccinating its citizens in
1972. But some experts fear that Iraq, North Korea and
perhaps extremist groups may have turned smallpox into
weapons.
Proposals to vaccinate the general public have raised
concerns about the vaccine's side effects, which can
include a scarring rash, high fever and encephalitis, a
swelling of the brain that can kill.
People with immune deficiencies, such as HIV or AIDS,
as well as skin diseases like eczema are prone to side
effects from the vaccine, which uses a live virus
related to smallpox to build immunity to the disease.
SIMULATED OUTBREAK
Using a computer model simulating the outbreak of
smallpox in two small towns, the researchers concluded
that the best way to lessen the risk of an epidemic is
to immunize all hospital workers and revaccinate healthy
people who have already had the vaccine.
Then, should the long-dormant disease reappear,
Epstein and Burke said infected patients would need to
be isolated in the hospital, and all their family
members or roommates would require immediate vaccination
to contain its spread.
Under their model, all 800 residents of twin towns
were infected with smallpox after one person came in
contact with the disease. Epstein said the ratio was
comparable to that of 15,000 smallpox-infected people
introduced to Manhattan.
The researchers used data from sporadic smallpox
outbreaks from 1949 to 1971 in Europe, where the disease
had been eliminated but was reintroduced in small
epidemics.
Most infections were spread in hospitals or at home,
Burke said, as smallpox is believed to be contagious
only after symptoms have become severe.
"Persons who are able to transmit smallpox are
already very sick. The notion that someone can walk
around and apparently be healthy and transmit smallpox
just isn't true," he said.
He said the spread of smallpox through casual
encounters was much less likely than at home or in the
hospital.
"The contacts come to the cases, the cases don't come
to the contacts," he said.
The researchers declined to assess the urgency of a
revaccination plan, or the likelihood of a bio-terror
threat.
"We do not claim this set of measures should be
implemented right now, but given a credible threat it
makes a useful basis for a containment strategy,"
Epstein said.