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Mutation risk from vaccine for meningitis
August 8, 2002 4:55pm
COLLETT Geoff
08/08/2002
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The Ministry of Health has been warned its major weapon against
the meningococcal epidemic could be at risk from a mutant form of
the disease developing.
The warning has come from a British expert in meningococcal
disease, Professor Keith Cartwright, in an assessment of the
ministry's $200 million strategy to develop a meningococcal vaccine.
Meningococcal disease, which causes meningitis and septicaemia,
has been at epidemic levels in New Zealand for 11 years claiming
close to 200 lives.
The meningococcal bacteria is genetically "mobile" and the strain
responsible for most of the New Zealand epidemic is specific to this
country, demanding a tailor-made vaccine to attack it.
In an analysis of the project in January, released to The Press
under the Official Information Act this week, Professor Cartwright
said it was possible some of the bacteria could survive the vaccine,
then mutate to create vaccine-resistant varieties that could trigger
new cases of the disease.
He said the true level of the risk was extremely difficult to
assess but estimated it could be up to 30 per cent if the vaccine
did not bring the epidemic to a rapid halt, and the bacteria was
still around five to eight years after the vaccine was introduced.
A "more optimistic scenario" was that the vaccination project
would terminate the epidemic quickly, before "escape mutants" could
develop. Professor Cartwright estimated there was a 90 per cent
chance that the vaccine would bring the epidemic under control
within three to four years. He said that if a mutant bacteria did
develop, it could be possible to reformulate the vaccine although
that would add to the cost and complexity of the programme.
The ministry's meningococcal vaccine strategy project manager,
Jane O'Hallahan, said her group was confident that the risk was
"theoretical" and smaller than Professor Cartwright had suggested.
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