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April 5, 2002

INTERNATIONAL IMMUNIZATION NEWS

"Ready for the Next Influenza Pandemic?"

Lancet (www.thelancet.com) (03/30/02) Vol. 359, No. 9312, P. 1133; McConnell, John

At last month's International Congress on Infectious Diseases, experts discussed the threat of an influenza pandemic.  According to Klaus Stohr of the World Health Organization, the international health community is not prepared for a major outbreak of the disease.  On average, major influenza outbreaks occur every 25 years, but it has been almost 34 years since the last pandemic took place.  During past pandemics, at least 25 percent to 30 percent of the population in any particular location became sick, of whom 6 percent developed pneumonia, 1 percent had to go to the hospital, and 0.6 percent died.  The next pandemic may differ from preceding ones due to the availability of antiviral drugs, the rapid speed of global distribution of disease, and the larger population now at risk. Stohr says that the world currently faces an extreme shortage of antiviral medications and vaccines; an absence of policies for antiviral and vaccine use; and a lack of hospital, regional, and national contingency plans.  Stohr added that there are also no international or national agreements on meeting demand for antimicrobial and antiviral medications, or on the time frame for increasing vaccine production.

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