Fifteen or 20 years to create a new vaccine is considered quite speedy. So
the federal government's blueprint for a shot to stop the SARS epidemic in a
mere three years seems positively head-snapping.
Can it be done?
Certainly, says Dr. Gary Nabel, chief of the Vaccine Research Center at the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "If everything went
perfectly," he qualifies. "If all the stars were aligned."
The stars almost never align precisely in medical research. But if they do,
Nabel says scientists will finish all the basic lab work, creating the vaccine
and testing it in animals, in just one year.
Then they will spend two more trying it out on people to make sure it works,
turn the results over to the Food and Drug Administration and be done.
No vaccine in modern times has gone from start to finish nearly that fast.
But even if Nabel's time line proves unrealistic, his willingness to state it
out loud shows how seriously the government takes SARS.
The strategy for changing the pace from glacial to galactic: Forget solving
problems one at a time.
At Nabel's institute, two teams are working separately to create possible
vaccines. One sticks to the time-tested approach of making them with dead or
weakened viruses. The other builds them with up-to-the-second gene-splicing
tools.
Instead of dealing with big technical issues in the usual one-by-one order,
scientists will jump into all of them at once. For instance, they are gearing up
production of newly minted vaccines at the same time they figure out how to test
them in animals and tease apart exactly how the human immune system does the job
of fighting off SARS on its own.
"Parallel tracking," Nabel calls this. It's also called science in a hurry.
Why the rush? Why work so hard to defend against a disease that is just a few
months old, that has yet to kill a single person in the United States?
No one knows how bad SARS will become, whether it will burn out or continue
to spread, even exactly how it makes people so sick. But the consensus among the
country's top health officials is that it would be foolish to wait and see.
Even if SARS is somehow contained in China and Taiwan, many experts doubt it
will ever be wiped from the planet, even though this is the World Health
Organization's goal. More likely, they say, the virus will come and go, perhaps
in some seasonal pattern, maybe by chance.
No matter what happens in the next few months, federal officials promise to
keep working on a vaccine so the world will be ready whenever, wherever SARS
returns.
"We need a vaccine. There's no question about it," says Dr. Anthony Fauci,
head of the infectious disease institute. "This is potentially disastrous enough
that we can't just hope it will go away and stay away."
The government is not alone in this. It is encouraging private vaccine makers
to take a crack at SARS. In April, Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy
Thompson hosted a meeting of vaccine scientists, where government researchers
shared what they knew about the virus and promised them samples to work with.
"They more or less said, 'We want your entrepreneurial brains working on
this,"' says Una Ryan, president of Avant Immunotherapeutics.
Labs from Hong Kong to Canada are also tackling SARS vaccines, and Fauci said
his institute will sign contracts with up to a dozen companies to help with
development.
At this point, however, the single biggest question is still unanswered: Is a
SARS vaccine even possible?
Dr. Emilio Emini, head of vaccine development at Merck, is among those trying
to answer this. For now he refuses even to chance a guess.
"This is a new virus. So much is not understood," he says. "It's a big black
box."
Still, Nabel says he knows of at least three major pharmaceutical companies
besides Merck, the world's largest vaccine maker, that have gone to work on
SARS, even though no one can be sure whether there will ever be a market for a
vaccine.
Their success will depend on figuring out a way to train the body's immune
system to see the SARS virus quickly, to recognize it as dangerous and to kill
it before it makes people sick.
Even as well as this approach has subdued some of the world's most persistent
infections, there are many notable exceptions. Malaria and tuberculosis, for
instance, have resisted decades of vaccine research. And of course scientists
cannot forget their humbling failure at a vaccine for HIV, the most studied
virus in history.
Nevertheless, one strong clue at least gives them some hope: Most people who
catch the SARS virus eventually fight it off and get better.
"That means their immune response is working, and that means a vaccine is
possible," says Dr. Louis Picker, associate director of Oregon Health & Science
University's Vaccine and Gene Therapy Institute. "It's just a matter of finding
the approach that will mimic that response without being too dangerous."
Worry that a vaccine will be too dangerous is one reason development takes so
long. No one wants to make healthy people sick by giving them shots intended to
prevent illness. So typically vaccines are tested painstakingly on thousands of
volunteers over many years to prove they do far more good than harm.
Even with this, dangers may come to light only when they get into routine
use. Four years ago, the first rotavirus vaccine was pulled from the market
after just one year. The shots prevent childhood diarrhea, but they also turned
out to cause life-threatening bowel obstructions in one in 10,000 recipients.
Scientists are especially cautious because of their experience with vaccines
aimed at animal relatives of the SARS virus. SARS is a coronavirus, the same
virus family that causes serious diseases in pigs and other animals. While shots
work well against some of these, they occasionally go disastrously bad. A
vaccine for the feline coronavirus actually results in worse disease, not less,
when cats catch the virus.
Vaccines work by giving the body a glimpse of its target, typically a dead
virus, a weakened live one or bits of viral proteins. When all goes well, the
immune system remembers these and goes on full attack when it later encounters
the real thing.
But as happened with the cat vaccine, they sometimes trigger an off-kilter
immune reaction, so when attacked by the actual virus, the system responds with
a weak or misguided defense.
Vaccines made from killed viruses can have this paradoxical result. And even
if they do no harm, the killed virus vaccines often fail to rally a meaningful
counter-assault. Nevertheless, the approach works against some microbes,
including the flu, and the infectious disease institute's Dr. Brian Murphy is
developing a SARS vaccine with virus killed with formaldehyde.
When that is finished, Murphy will probably turn to another approach that has
produced most of the world's vaccines, an attenuated virus. These are made by
growing the virus over and over until it builds up enough mutations to leave it
too weak to do harm.
Because the attenuated viruses cause true infections, they trigger an
especially robust and well-rounded defense, arming the immune system to launch
both antibodies and virus-killing T cells. But there are drawbacks: They can
take a long time to make, and the crippled virus can theoretically mutate to
regain its power, making people sick.
"They are effective but dangerous, and it will take a long time to get one we
would give to people," says Picker.
Vaccines based on genetic engineering may be faster.
One approach is using gene-splicing to make plenty of SARS virus parts, such
as the protein prongs that stick out from the virus, giving it a crown-like
appearance under a microscope. Injecting these proteins -- but not the virus
itself -- may be enough to prompt the immune system to recognize the SARS virus.
A vaccine made this way works well against hepatitis B. But like killed
viruses, the bare proteins can also trigger wimpy or aberrant immune responses.
Nabel's own lab is taking another gene-based approach -- harmless viruses
hollowed out to carry SARS genes into the body. Many such delivery vehicles are
possible, but Nabel uses a weakened adenovirus, a bug that ordinarily causes
colds, that is fitted out with SARS DNA.
Inside the body, these genes should produce authentic-looking SARS proteins,
and researchers hope they stimulate a knockout strike against the SARS virus
with the full repertoire of immune system weapons.
Even if one of these approaches quickly shows promise, it still must be
pushed through human testing in a part of the world where SARS is spreading or,
if SARS disappears, go through extensive animal testing. Some doubt all this can
be accomplished quickly.
"Could the rules get changed so it would take less than 15 years? Yes. But
could it be three years?" asks Dr. Donna Ambrosino, head of Massachusetts
Biologic Laboratory, a nonprofit vaccine maker.
Doubtful, she says. There are simply too many unknowns, both about the virus
itself and the safety of any strategy to stop it. She notes that scientists have
been trying since the 1960s to make a vaccine for another breathing infection,
the respiratory syncytial virus, which causes serious disease in babies.
"We know the proteins. We know the antibodies. We have animal models. We know
all of that," she says. "But we still don't have a vaccine that works."
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as providing medical or legal advice. The decision whether or not to vaccinate
is an important and complex issue and should be made by you, and you alone, in
consultation with your health care provider.
"A foolish faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth."
-- Albert Einstein, letter to a friend, 1901
"I know of no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves, and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education."
-- Thomas Jefferson, letter to William C. Jarvis, September 28, 1820
"What's the point of vaccination if it doesn't protect you from the unvaccinated?"
-- Sandy Gottstein
"Who gets to decide what the greater good is and how many will be sacrificed to it?"