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The
inappropriate use of face masks has helped to blow the
worldwide reaction to the SARS virus completely out of
proportion, says John Oxford, professor of virology at
Queen Mary, University of London. "They're totally
useless in the way they're being used," he said.
"They've not been used in the correct context, which is
why the whole world's got inflamed and worked up," he
told BioMedNet News.
The evidence
now suggests that the 29,751-base pair coronavirus that
causes SARS is pretty difficult to catch. "You only get
it by coming face to face with someone with the virus,"
said Oxford. "You won't pick it up in the street," he
said.
So, in Hong
Kong, which has seen less than 2000 SARS cases in a
population of around 6.75 million, you'd have to come
into close contact with nearly 5000 people before you
met one that might infect you, says Oxford.
Wearing masks
was therefore only an appropriate precaution for those
interacting closely with large numbers of people, he
says. "Nursing staff, taxi drivers, and maybe hotel
receptionists were the only ones that needed to wear
one," he said. Nevertheless, the widespread use of masks
in public places, has caused panic around the world.
"It's a very
compelling and frightening image of these people who
were hiding themselves behind masks from this disease,"
said Karin Wahl-Jorgensen of the School of Journalism,
Media and Cultural Studies at Cardiff University, UK.
"Imagery is always crucial, particularly with
television. If you don't have good visuals, you don't
really have a news story," she said.
"Certainly,
the fact that you did have these frightened people
running around with masks on did actually contribute to
the moral panic resulting from SARS," said
Wahl-Jorgensen.
The first
major analysis of the epidemiology of this disease
confirms that it is difficult to transmit. "It seems as
if it probably requires close contact," said Asra Ghani
of the department of infectious disease epidemiology at
Imperial College, London.
The
statistical analysis of available data from Hong Kong
and China revealed that the number of deaths caused by
SARS was very different in different age groups. The
fatality rate was 13.2% for patients under the age of
60, but as high as 43.3% for those over the age of 60,
report Ghani and colleagues in a recent article in
The Lancet.
One unusual
feature of this virus that has emerged from Ghani's
research is that most people who get SARS do not infect
anyone else. But some individuals, known as
"superspreaders", appear to be responsible for
transmitting the disease to dozens and sometimes
hundreds of others, Ghani says. "I think it's becoming
clear that superspreaders have some role [in disease
transmission]," she said.
HIV is a
classic case of such transmission heterogeneity, she
adds. Most people have just a few sexual partners and so
transmit the virus to one or two other individuals. But
a small number of people have a large number of
partners, which spreads the virus widely, she says.
The
superspreader phenomenon could help explain the
persistence of SARS. These individuals bump-up the rate
of transmission and keep the infection going, says
Ghani. "That can produce what's starting to look like an
epidemic" from something that is actually quite
difficult to transmit, she said.
But it is
still not clear what makes someone a SARS superspreader.
It is important to find out if these people have higher
viral loads or more contacts than individuals who are
not superspreaders, says Ghani.
Similarly,
the origins of the virus remain a mystery. Media
speculation that intensive livestock production was to
blame was quashed earlier this month by Peter Roeder of
the Animal Production and Health Division of the United
Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization.
It is true
that a high human population density in close contact
with several species of intensively farmed livestock
potentially provides a substrate for cross-species
transmission, evolution, and amplification of many
pathogenic agents, says Roeder. But in the case of SARS,
he said, "There is currently no evidence for an origin
in farm animals ... and it seems unlikely, even if the
origin of the virus is still a mystery."
In spite of
the very high rates of fatality caused by this enigmatic
coronavirus, all indicators suggest that it will not
kill as many people as more infectious viruses like
influenza, concludes virologist Oxford. "I think the
virus is telling us that it's not very dangerous," he
said.
For example,
the 1918 pandemic of "Spanish flu" is estimated to have
killed only 2.5% of those that went down with the
illness. But it was so infectious and spread so widely
that by the end of the year, the death toll had topped
40 million. By contrast, since SARS emerged in the
Guangdong province of China just over 6-months ago, it
has claimed fewer than 1000 victims.
Nevertheless,
there are still so many unknowns about SARS that we need
to remain alert, says Oxford. "We think it took the 1918
flu epidemic a year to get going," he said, and we just
don't know whether we are experiencing a lag before SARS
gets cracking, he warned. |