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May 07, 2003

INTERNATIONAL IMMUNIZATION NEWS

"Death Rate From SARS Is Expected to Increase"

Washington Post (www.washingtonpost.com) (05/07/03) P. A14; Stein, Rob

New research, released early Tuesday by the Lancet medical journal, suggests that the death rate from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is between 14.8 percent and 18.06 percent.  However, the researchers--who studied the first 1,425 cases of SARS in Hong Kong, in an attempt to project the actual death rate once everyone who is hospitalized either recovers or dies--said the mortality rate varies significantly based on age.  For individuals under the age of 60, the mortality rate is between 6.8 percent and 13.2 percent; however, the rate for patients 60 years of age and older is between 43.3 percent and 55 percent.  The new findings are much higher than previous estimates--the World Health Organization estimated in recent weeks that the SARS death rate was between 6 percent and 10 percent, while the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the rate was about 6.6 percent.  The new study, conducted by researchers at Imperial College in London, also indicates that the average time between hospitalization and death is roughly 36 days--a period much longer than other estimates.

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