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Most parents reading the article would want to
know, "If my child has a spurt in head growth, will he
become autistic?" The article leaves the impression that
a spurt in head size growth in the first year of life
implies a high risk for autism. Yet even among infants
experiencing such a change, the actual odds are strongly
against future autism.
Using the article's own numbers: About four
children per 1,000 are diagnosed with autism and about
59 percent of future autistic kids show the infantile
head size growth spurt described by the researchers.
Therefore, about 2.4 children per 1,000 show the head
growth spurt and later turn out autistic. However, 6
percent of normal infants "showed accelerated growth in
head circumference." Therefore, the ratio of future
non-autistic children with accelerated head growth to
future autistic children with accelerated head growth is
about 25 to 1. To put it in percentage terms, over 96
percent of all infants with accelerated head
circumference growth turn out to be normal, not
autistic.
Larry H. Pastor, MD
Clinical Assistant Professor of Psychiatry
and Human Behavior
The George Washington University
Medical Center
Vienna
© 2003 The Washington Post Company
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