Prevalence of autism and parentally reported triggers in a north
east London population.
Lingam R, Simmons A, Andrews N, Miller E, Stowe J, Taylor B.
Centre for Community Child Health, Royal Free and University College Medical
School, Royal Free Campus, University College London, London NW3 2PF.
BACKGROUND: The recorded prevalence of autistic spectrum disorders has risen
over recent decades. Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine has been blamed,
by causing a "new variant" form of "regressive autism" associated with "autistic
enterocolitis". AIMS: To estimate the prevalence of autism and to assess any
changes in parental perception regarding the onset or causes of autism. METHODS
AND RESULTS: A total of 567 children with autistic spectrum disorder in five
districts in north east London were identified, born 1979-98. Reported autism,
excluding the 94 cases of Asperger's syndrome, increased by year of birth until
1992, since when prevalence has plateaued. This flattening off persisted after
allowing for expected delay in diagnosis in more recent birth cohorts. The age
at diagnosis of autistic spectrum disorder was estimated to have decreased per
five year period since 1983, by 8.7% for childhood autism and by 11.0% for
atypical autism. There was some evidence that MMR was more likely to be
mentioned as a trigger after August 1997 than before. CONCLUSIONS: The
prevalence of autism, which was apparently rising from 1979 to 1992, reached a
plateau from 1992 to 1996 at a rate of some 2.6 per 1000 live births. This
levelling off, together with the reducing age at diagnosis, suggests that the
earlier recorded rise in prevalence was not a real increase but was likely due
to factors such as increased recognition, a greater willingness on the part of
educationalists and families to accept the diagnostic label, and better
recording systems. The proportion of parents attributing their child's autism to
MMR appears to have increased since August 1997.
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"A foolish faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth."
-- Albert Einstein, letter to a friend, 1901
"I know of no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves, and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education."
-- Thomas Jefferson, letter to William C. Jarvis, September 28, 1820
"What's the point of vaccination if it doesn't protect you from the unvaccinated?"
-- Sandy Gottstein
"Who gets to decide what the greater good is and how many will be sacrificed to it?"