| When Kristen Hawkes
of the University of Utah in Salt Lake City first came
up with the grandmother hypothesis of menopause in 1997,
she began by arguing that around two million years ago,
early humans living in hunter-gatherer societies
developed a taste for calorie-rich root vegetables.
Because these tubers had to be dug up from the soil,
small children had difficulty feeding themselves and
needed help. Suddenly, grandmothers became useful,
investing time and energy in their grandchildren's
upbringing and freeing up their daughters to invest in
new pregnancies.
The theory appeared to explain why the overall
lifespan of older women began incrementally to increase,
while their reproductive lifespan remained fixed - a
highly unusual phenomenon among mammals. Women naturally
stop reproducing at around the age of 45, while chimps
do so around 10 years earlier. But whereas women may
live on to 70, female chimps don't survive much beyond
menopause.
Now Alan Rogers, also of the University of Utah, and
his colleague Richard McElreath have compared
demographic data on fertility and survival among females
in two different populations: the human population of
Taiwan in 1906, widely considered a model population
based on natural fertility, and the chimpanzees of Gombe
National Park in Tanzania so meticulously documented by
the Jane Goodall Institute's Center for Primate Studies.
Their analysis makes two assumptions: first, that
humans evolved from a chimp-like ancestor with
comparable demography to the Gombe chimps; and second,
that to reach the current human situation, the human
gene pool would have had to resist invasion by mutants
that would either increase the fertility or reduce the
survival of older women. The researchers then compared
the life histories of chimps and humans to look for
factors that could have driven us along our anomalous
evolutionary pathway, while still maintaining a viable
population.
Their main finding supports the grandmother
hypothesis, and has to do with a tradeoff between
fertility and survival across generations: for each
additional child born to a mother who already has a
daughter of reproductive age, their model predicts a
cost to the daughter of two children. According to
Rogers, that means selection would act to limit the
mother's fertility. "The maintenance of reduced late
fertility is at least plausible under the grandmother
hypothesis," he says.
And why isn't the same effect seen in chimps?
"Chimpanzee mothers appear to be less necessary to their
daughters' fertility than human mothers," explains
Rogers. Compared to humans, chimps invest much less in
caring for offspring that aren't their own, he says.
However, as the theory stands, it cannot explain the
inordinately long postmenopausal survival of women. "A
small increase in grandmothering wouldn't help [provide
an explanation]," he said. "To produce that effect on
mortality, our chimp-like ancestor would have had to
invest more in grandparenting than modern humans."
Something is missing from the grandmother hypothesis,
he concludes. That missing x-factor could have been
something external - a reduction in the risk of
predation, say - or it could have been another tradeoff
acting within the population that both he and Hawkes
have so far overlooked: the tradeoff between a mother's
continued fertility and the survival of her own,
prereproductive children, perhaps.
Robin Holliday, a retired geneticist from Sydney,
Australia who has studied the evolution of human
longevity, says that this discrepancy could potentially
be cleared up by tweaking some of the assumptions on
which the model is based.
For instance, rather than looking at the 1906
Taiwanese population, he thinks Rogers should have used
data from certain Amerindian populations in South
America, whose life histories far more closely resemble
those of the earliest hunter-gatherers. In some of those
populations, he says, life expectancy at birth is no
more than 20 years, and only 3% of women survive to
menopause.
By and large however, Holliday thinks the grandmother
hypothesis does bear scientific scrutiny. "When you have
young children," he says, "it makes sense to invest in
them rather than have more." |