A TERRORIST on a suicide mission could just as likely be armed with
smallpox as a bomb and the impact on Australia from such an attack might
only be as far away as an overseas tour group, US experts say.
Director of the US National Institute of Infectious Allergy and
Diseases, Dr Anthony Fauci, says Australia will soon have to make a
difficult decision on how to deal with the threat of smallpox.
In the US the Government planned to vaccinate a core of military and
health workers as "first responders" against smallpox and Dr Fauci says
Australia may have to take similar action.
It's a decision that has to be made knowing the risks for smallpox
vaccination are one-to-two deaths (and from 15 to 49 life-threatening
complications) per million people vaccinated.
"Australia has to make their own decision," Dr Fauci, among US
President George W Bush's smallpox policy advisers, said.
"They have to make that decision based upon their assessment of what
the threat to them is.
"Either from a direct attack on Australia or from an attack for
example in the Middle East and then people travel back and forth to
Australia."
And the Bali bomb attacks that killed 88 Australians were evidence
the country was not immune from chemical attack either.
"Australia at least in its citizenship has been the victim of a
terrorist attack," Dr Fauci said.
"We ourselves are twice victims, once on September 11 and once with
the anthrax attack."
"In the United States we had to make a very difficult decision
because we know that the risk is not zero of smallpox.
"But we can't quantitate it, we can't say there's a 10 per cent
chance, or a 20 per cent chance or a 30 per cent chance that there'll be
a bioterrorist attack either on the US, or in place that ultimately
might spread to the US.
"We made it very clear, the President made it very clear, the
Secretary of Health and Human Services and I made it very clear, that we
do not recommend routine vaccination for the general population.
"Not many countries are seriously considering vaccinating their
entire population."
Dr Fauci said his advice was that ordinary people should not get
vaccinated against smallpox.
But he said a group of healthcare workers, smallpox response teams
and first responders like firefighters and policemen should be
vaccinated in case of an attack so those people could mobilise
themselves quickly.
"If nobody's vaccinated and then there's a massive attack the people
who are going to go in and try and put the fire out are going to be
susceptible themselves," he said.
The vaccine in use is still the same as that used last century and is
tarnished with potential side effects despite ongoing attempts by
government and private companies to develop or import something safer.
Professor of preventive medicine at the University of Southern
California Dr Thomas Mack, a veteran of the 1960s smallpox wars in South
Asia, has argued that today's media-drenched society would give a
community ample warning of an outbreak and good opportunity to contain
its secondary spread.
"I would be against getting a vaccination policy of healthy
Australians," he said.
"And I would also be against vaccinating hospital populations - the
staff that is - in the way that the Bush Administration is doing it for
the same reasons.
"In Australia I would imagine that ... it would take a fair number of
vaccinations to vaccinate every hospital person who might be at risk."
Dr Mack said he thought the threat of the spread of smallpox was a
small one and he wasn't even in favour of vaccinations for health
workers at this stage.
And he said the most likely people to be at risk in a smallpox
outbreak in a hospital would be patients, not staff.
But Dr Fauci emphasised that if a threat presented itself, a
vaccination policy could be continually developed.
The strategy would be to mobilise people to vaccinate others rather
than pre-emptively vaccinate large numbers.
"And there will never be compulsory vaccination I can almost assure
you of that, there will only be voluntary vaccination because of the
risks of the vaccine," he said.
The Associated Press