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http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F00E11F73A590C738FDDAD0894DB404482

Foreign Desk | April 30, 2003, Wednesday

The Sars Epidemic: The Virus; A New SARS Riddle: How to Know It's Beaten

By LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN (NYT) 1030 words
Late Edition - Final , Section A , Page 10 , Column 5

ABSTRACT - Lawrence K Altman analysis of SARS epidemic discusses new WHO assurances that outbreak is over in Vietnam and waning in Hong Kong and question of how much confidence experts can express about little-understood new disease (M) The World Health Organization has said that SARS is over in Vietnam and waning in Hong Kong, and yesterday it said it would rescind the warning against travel to Toronto. Responding to the first favorable news about the spread of the disease -- severe acute respiratory syndrome -- since the agency issued a global health warning on March 12, the markets in Hong Kong are rebounding.

But the pronouncements still raise questions about the degree of confidence anyone can have in predictions about the course of a new disease like SARS -- especially a disease that is so little understood, as W.H.O. scientists are the first to acknowledge.



 

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