Foreign
Desk
| April 29, 2003, Tuesday
THE SARS
EPIDEMIC: STATISTICS; Health Group Relies on
a Time-Tested Rule to Determine Last New
Case
By DENISE GRADY (NYT) 795 words
Late Edition - Final , Section A ,
Page 12 , Column 1
ABSTRACT
- World Health Orgn is relying on
time-tested rule of thumb used by
epidemiologists in declaring Vietnam first
country to stop its outbreak of SARS; rule
says epidemic is over if no new cases occur
in time span that is double longest known
incubation period of the disease; SARS has
10-day incubation period and no new cases
have been detected in Vietnam in 20 days;
Vietnam had total of 63 cases and 5 deaths;
WHO spokesman gives credit for Vietnam's
success to old-fashioned infection-control
measures; says there was high level of
political commitment there from beginning
(M) In declaring Vietnam the first country
to stop its outbreak of severe acute
respiratory syndrome, or SARS, the World
Health Organization relied on a time-tested
rule of thumb used by epidemiologists.
The rule says that an epidemic is over if
no new cases occur in a time span that is
double the longest known incubation period
of the disease. Because SARS has a 10-day
incubation period, and no new cases have
been detected in Vietnam since April 8,
health officials said yesterday that the
disease had been brought under control.
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